Economist discusses Rainier labor market

During the Rainier Chamber of Commerce monthly luncheon June 11, Workforce economist Shaun Barrick presented labor market information from the State of Oregon Employment Department. According to the department, the unemployed persons per job vacancy in Oregon has been higher than the U.S. average, with the discrepancy growing wider since winter 2021. Most recently, according to the statistics put out by the department, winter 2025 "had the second-lowest level of job vacancies in Oregon since summer 2020."

Clarifying, Barrick said, "When we talk about unemployment rates, what we're talking about there is how many unemployed individuals there are compared to employed individuals, so it doesn't include anyone who's not working. So if you stay at home and take care of someone in your family, or if you're retired or you are 15 years old - a freshman in high school - you are not included in the labor force. We just count people who are actively working or actively seeking work. That's kind of what puts together the labor force."

According to a study, local area unemployment rates in Columbia County rose from 4.5 in 2024 to 5.3 in 2025. Similar rises were also seen in Clatsop, Lincoln, and Tilamook Counties; still, Columbia had the highest, with Lincoln coming in as a close second with 5.2 as of April 2025. Considering factors that could lead to such a high number, specifically a bridge and river separating two interstate communities, Barrick said, "You guys have a lot of 'out' community. Right across the river is a place called Washington. When we talk about statistics, sometimes I get a little frustrated because we draw these imaginary boundary lines and we say what's happening within a county or what's happening within a city, and we especially like to draw these lines and say what's happening within a state....Rainier sends a lot of people across the river into Longview and then a lot of folks from Longview come over here to work."

Reinforcing Barrick's point, the study's stats regarding commuters show 801 are employed in Rainier but live elsewhere, 172 both live and are employed in Rainier, and 1,158 live in Rainier but are employed elsewhere. Providing a snapshot specifically for the Rainier labor market, the study showed a 2024 population of 1,939, a civilian labor force of 833, an unemployment rate of 3.7 percent, as well as 802 employed and 31 unemployed. Breaking down industries, the two largest representatives were services (educational, health care, and social assistance) and goods (manufacturing), while the smallest were retail trade, government public administration, and transportation and warehousing.

Drawing from 2023 numbers, statistics showed the median household income for Rainier was $62,847, with a per capita income of $33,306 and a poverty rate of 21.4 percent. Skipping over to the employers' side of the spectrum, 2023 Rainier stats showed a total of 184 establishments, 1,326 average employees, and an average pay of $52,358.

Speaking more on the future to close out his presentation, Barrick said, "As business owners, I think you all have experienced the last few years where it's terribly difficult to find anyone who will come to work and, if you find them, you're not sure if they're going to show up. There's a lot of that going on. Things are getting a little bit better on a large scale where we're seeing there's a little more unemployed than job vacancies, so there's a little more people available to work for each open job... We are seeing signs of the labor market loosening up. Whether that is going to be good for employers or signs of a kind of tricky labor market coming into the future, time will tell."

For more info on the latest Oregon economic data, visit qualityinfo.org.